Monday Night Football: Rams-Buccaneers Week 11 odds, prediction, analysis
Monday Night Football is here, and which means BetRivers.com has the latest Rams-Buccaneers Week 11 odds, lines, game, and player props.
The Week 11 finale features a Super Bowl rematch of sorts, as Tom Brady faces Jared Goff and the Rams for the first time since Super Bowl 36, when Brady and the Patriots defeated Los Angeles 13-3.
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Bettors are Rams-Buccaneers it to be much more high scoring than Super Bowl 36, with 77% of the O/U handle backing Over 48.5.
At 2-7 O/U, the Rams (+180 ML) have much better luck ATS, covering in five of nine games. The Buccaneers (-4.5, -210 ML) have covered in five of their ten games played, with all five of the wins coming by double-digits. The public is backing the Buccaneers to win (69% of ML handle) and cover (65% of spread handle).
Rob Dauster is here to break down the Rams-Buccaneers Week 11 odds and the best value plays worth a wager.
As always, Monday Night Football means MONDAY NIGHT MONEY at BetRivers.com. For Week 11, we’re giving you $10 in free in-play bets when you wager $50 on the Rams-Buccaneers game.
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Rams-Buccaneers Week 11 Odds
- Week 10: Rams (6-3) at Buccaneers (7-3), 8:20 p.m ET (ESPN)
- Moneyline: Buccaneers -210, Rams +180
- Spread: Buccaneers -4.5
- Over/Under: 48.5 points
- Implied Score: Bears 26, Rams 22
Click here for a full list of Rams-Buccaneers Week 11 odds.
Before we get into the meat of this, let’s talk about the narratives.
The Rams will be heading to the east coast for the fifth time in 11 weeks this season. Typically, this would be the kind of thing that we would try to exploit, but considering that the Rams are used to the travel, they recently had their bye week and this game will not be played as a 1 pm kickoff.
Speaking of which, the Buccaneers have looked out of sorts in their two primetime games this season, something that has led to a number of memes about Tom Brady’s bedtime being 8 pm. While I’m not going to deny that he’s old and old people like me tend to get tired around dinner time, this is not something that I’m going to try and chase. Small samples and all that.
Now that we have the dueling narratives covered, we should dive right into the matchup itself.
And for my money, I do think that this is a matchup that favors Tampa Bay, especially when the Rams have the ball. Tampa’s defense is one of the best in the NFL at defending the run. I could give you all the numbers, but it’s easier just to say they’re top three, if not No. 1, in every relevant defensive line metric. For years, we’ve faded running backs against them in Daily Fantasy, a useful bit of information when you consider that the way Sean McVay’s offense is designed this season is by using his three-headed running back attack to set up a quick, play-action passing game for Jared Goff.
If the Rams can’t run the ball, they can’t use the run to set up Goff’s passing game. And if they can’t use play-action, that’s terrible news for Goff, who has been terrible against pressure basically his entire career. There’s a reason why he has such massive performance splits against good defenses and bad defenses. Throw in the fact that all-world left tackle Andrew Whitworth is out, and this is setting up as a tough game to back Goff.
So I’ll be on the Buccaneers (-4) here.
But I think I like the under even more. The reason is pretty simple. The Rams have one of the best defenses in the NFL, per metrics like DVOA, and the Bucs are 0-3 and averaging 15 points against top 10 defenses. They’re 7-0 and averaging 36 points against the rest of the NFL.
If neither offense is set up for success, we’re not going to see many points.