Group F picks & predictions

The final matches of Euro 2020 Group E take place on Wednesday, June 23 and BetRivers.com is here to break down the Group E picks and predictions for Sweden-Poland and Slovakia-Spain. It is very easy with BetRivers to place your sport bets online in real time. Here’s the situation in Group E: Sweden is currently sitting atop the group on four points. Slovakia, having beaten Poland, is on three points. Spain is in third with two points, having posted a pair of draws, while Poland’s draw against Spain is their only point of the group stage.

Sweden is through to the knockout rounds as is. There is a chance that they can win the group with a draw, and they will win the group with a win. Slovakia will be through with a draw, and while Spain may be able to get through with a draw, that is not guaranteed. Poland will be through to the knockout stage with a win.

Longtime writer Rob Dauster, the co-founder of The Field of 68 Podcast Network is here to provide his Group E picks & predictions for the final matches of group play on Wednesday, June 23.

GROUP E STANDINGS:
1. Sweden: (1-0-1, 4pts). 1 GF, GA
2. Slovakia: (1-0-1, 4pts). 2 GF, 2 GA
3. Spain: (0-0-2, 2pts). 1 GF, 1 GA
4. Poland: (0-1-1, 1pt). 2 GF, 3 GA

EURO 2020 CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: France (+400), Italy (+600), Germany (+700), Belgium (+700), Spain (+900), England (+950), Portugal (+1100), Netherlands (+1150), Denmark (+1800), Croatia (+3500), Sweden (+5000), Wales (+8000), Austria (+12000)

GROUP E PICKS: SWEDEN-POLAND PREVIEW

SWEDEN (10-1, 4pts) vs. POLAND (0-1-1, 1pt), 12 p.m. ET
SWEDEN: +180
POLAND: +150
DRAW: +250
Over 2.5: +118
Under 2.5: -143
Click here for the full list of Sweden-Poland odds.

Sweden have been arguably the best organized and best drilled defensive side in this tournament. They, more than just about anyone, are willing to sit back and defense while trying to strike on the counter. That didn’t really work all that well in a draw against Spain — who had 85% possession and posted 2.5 xG — but it did in a 1-0 win over Slovakia. Through 180 minutes, there has been exactly one goal scored in games Sweden has played in.

I don’t expect that to change against a Polish side that has really struggled. They don’t have the midfield play to be able to get service to superstar striker Robert Lewandowski. They also don’t have much talent along their backline, but since they are going to have to push for a win if they want to advance to the knockout stages, they’re going to be at risk of allowing Alexander Isak, one of the breakout stars of this event, a chance to run into space.

So I like the Swedish side here. I think my favorite bet is the Swedish Draw No Bet line at (+102), but there is also value on their ML. It’s worth noting here that Poland has won just one of their last eight matches, and that came against something called Andorra.

The under is certainly in play as well, although I like taking an alt-line of under 2 at (+135) more than laying the juice on under 2.5.

SLOVAKIA (1-0-1, 4pts) vs. SPAIN (0-0-2, 2pts), 12 p.m. ET
SLOVAKIA: +1500
SPAIN: -480
DRAW: +550
Over 2.5: -150
Under 2.5: +123
Click here for the full list of Slovakia-Spain odds.

The key factor in handicapping this match is that Slovakia, who currently sit at second in the group, only need a draw to get through to the knockout rounds. Traditionally a tough out when they get to international tournaments, the Slovakians have scored a goal on a corner and been the beneficiary of an own goal by Poland. That’s it. And they haven’t created much, either. Their xG differential (their expected goals minus their opponents’ expected goals) is the lowest of any team still alive in the tournament.

So on one side, we have a team that doesn’t have much attacking impetus and is incentivized to sit back and try to hold on to a 0-0 draw.

Spain, on the other hand, has created 4.4 xG and only scored once, the biggest difference of any team in the tournament. They also missed a penalty, and Alvaro Morata’s inability to finish anything has seemingly infected everyone on the roster. But in general, this is a team that just does not breakdown set defenses. They’ve played 15 matches since international play restarted in September of last year. In 10 of those 15 matches, Spain has scored one or fewer goals. Of the five where they scored more than one, three came against Kosovo, Georgia and Lithuania. They haven’t scored more than one goal against an opponent that ranks in the top 40 of FIFA’s rankings since before Thanksgiving of last year. Slovakia ranks 18th.

The under is currently sitting at (+123). I love it.

Wednesday, June 23:
12:00 p.m. ET: Slovakia vs. Spain (Group E)
12:00 p.m. ET: Sweden vs. Poland (Group E)
3:00 p.m. ET: Germany vs. Hungary (Group F)
3:00 p.m. ET: Portugal vs. France (Group F)