Week 11 of Thursday Night Football is here, and it’s time to take a look at the Falcons-Patriots betting odds for the Super Bowl LI rematch. The Patriots enter Week 11 having won four games in a row since a heartbreaking late loss to the Cowboys. More importantly, the Patriots have covered the spread in four straight games after having covered just twice in their first six games. The Falcons enter Thursday night having suffered a 40-point loss to the Cowboys in Week 10. Of the Falcons’ five losses, three have been by 23 or more points.
Longtime Poker broadcaster and sports bettor David Tuchman is here to preview the Falcons-Patriots betting odds for Week 11 and drops knowledge on the best bets worth a wager.
We’re on a bit of a hot streak as we head into week eleven; 43-34 on the season. Traditionally, late November is around the time where we see the contenders separate themselves from the contenders. Are the Rams’ recent struggles a concern? Does Buffalo have what it takes to take the next step? Can Kansas City right the ship and make noise in the postseason once again?
Loads of questions that will seemingly be answered over the next few weeks, including, Are the New England Patriots for real? This is one we start to answer tonight. Let’s break down the Falcons-Patriots betting odds.
FALCONS-PATRIOTS BETTING ODDS: WEEK 11
ATLANTA FALCONS (4-5) vs. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (6-4)
DATE/TIME: Thursday, November 18, 8:20 p.m.
CHANNEL: NFL Network/FOX
MONEYLINE: Patriots -275 ML, Falcons +235 ML
SPREAD: Patriots -7
After starting the season 1-3, Bill Belichick has the New England Patriots right back in the hunt – courtesy of a four-game winning streak. This week they travel to Atlanta to take on the Jekyll and Hyde team that is the Falcons.
A staple of Belichick is that he has his team ready to play – they generally beat the teams they’re supposed to beat. As for Atlanta, who knows what we’re going to get especially after they were pummeled by Dallas last week.
The line opened up with New England being a 5.5 point favorite, but sharps quickly moved that line to a touchdown. It’s fluctuated from 7.5 to 6.5 all week before settling on what appears to be 7.
Taking a look at the trends, I’m not sure you’ll get any closer to an answer, but here they are…
NE is 6-4 ATS this season, they are 4-0 on the road and 3-1 ATS on the road. Atlanta is 4-5 ATS, but 3-1 ATS coming off a loss.
This is a funny game and it’s evidence of why you really want to be paying attention to the line movements all week. If you like New England, it would’ve made a ton of sense to get them at -6.5. If you like the Falcons, getting them at +7.5 would’ve been huge. That half a point is so valuable when it comes to getting off the key number of 7.
At the end of the day, while I’m not a fan of giving more than a touchdown on the road, I’m definitely leaning toward the Patriots. I’m concerned about Atlanta’s offense without Calvin Ridley. They don’t have a ton of offensive weapons (Kyle Pitts) and Belichick is a master at not allowing your best player to beat him. The Falcons put up three points last week vs Dallas – I’m not sure this week will go much better.
The Pick: New England -6.5 (this is where I got them)
At this point, if I was betting New England, I’m inclined to bet on them at the Money Line which is currently -286
Or…we could include them in a teaser. Move the line from New England -7 to -1 and add in Dallas who is currently at +2.5.
Our teaser would be New England -1 and Dallas +8.5 – I can get behind that.
Another bet I’m intrigued by is the Total – it’s 47. . As I mentioned, I think Atlanta will have a lot of trouble scoring tonight and while I do think the Patriots will score some, I imagine they won’t need to throw much in the 4th quarter keeping this game lower scoring.
The Pick: UNDER 47
One Prop bet we love. This might come as a surprise since I just said Belichick is a master at shutting down a team’s best weapon.
Kyle Pitts OVER 4.5 receptions
I don’t think Belichick is going to let Pitts beat him, but it’ll be near impossible to stop him completely. Per PFF, Since week four, Pitts has been the primary target on 23% of Atlanta’s passing plays. He’s had at least six targets in each of these games and is almost always the first read for QB, Matt Ryan.
So, I don’t think Kyle Pitts has a particularly efficient game, I do think he finishes the game with six receptions simply because that’s who Ryan throws the ball to.