Group F picks & predictions

The first match of the Euro 2020 Semifinals takes place on Tuesday, July 6th, and is here to provide you with a betting preview complete with picks and predictions for Italy vs. Spain.

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Tuesday’s matchup features a showdown between two of the most talented teams in the field, as a stout Italian defense will be tasked with slowing down a Spanish side that seems to be rounding into form in the knockout stages.

So where does the value lie?

Longtime writer Rob Dauster, the co-founder of The Field of 68 Podcast Network is here to provide his Euro 2020 quarterfinal picks & predictions the first two matches of the quarterfinals.

EURO 2020 CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: England (+145), Italy (+210), Spain (+255), Denmark (+950)


SPAIN vs. ITALY, 3 p.m. ET

  • SPAIN: +210
  • ITALY: +145
  • DRAW: +220
  • Over 2.5: +130
  • Under 2.5: -157

If we’re talking strictly talent on paper, underlying numbers and advanced stats, there really isn’t all that much that separates these two sides. Hell, I could craft a pretty good argument that Spain is, on paper, better than Italy. The Spanish have scored the most goals in this tournament with 12. They have the highest cumulative xG of any team in the field at 14.4. They have the highest xG differential of any team in the field at +8.2. They’ve created six expected goals more than Italy, and they have far and away the most xG per 90 of any team in the tournament.

That said, 10 of Spain’s 12 goals in this tournament came against Croatia and Slovakia, and they really struggled in their other three matches to be able to finish off the chances that they created — they have a massive lead on Italy in big chances created.

It’s also important to note here that Spain’s defensive issues have not exactly been a secret. They allowed the most xG of any team in the semifinals, and if there is going to be someone in the final three matches of this tournament that has an absolutely calamitous mistake at the back, it’s going to be Spain.

The other x-factor here is the status of Leonardo Spinazzola, who suffered an achilles injury in Italy’s win over Belgium. That’s a fairly massive loss for the Azzurri, as Spinazzola was one of the best players for the Italians in this tournament.

Having said all of that, my view on this match is pretty straightforward: The Italians are the most organized, more disciplined and better side. We can discuss xG all we want. Since international football returned a year ago, the Spanish have played 18 matches. These are the teams they’ve beaten in 90 minutes: Germany, Switzerland, Ukraine, Kosovo, Lithuania and Slovakia. The Germany match happened in November of 2020. The win over the Swiss came a month earlier. It’s been a while since we’ve seen Spain look like Spain against the elite, and the Italians are, assuredly, the elite. So I do believe the value here lies on the side of Italy.

But I think the best that I like the most here is over 2.5 at (+130).

There are going to be a ton of chances created in this match. Both teams have powerful midfields. Both teams have pace along their front line. And both teams do have some questions in defense — as good as Bonucci and Chielini are, I would be remiss if I did not mention that they are in their mid-30s.

I think there’s a real chance that this ends up being one of the most exciting matches of the tournament.

Click here for the full list of Spain-Italy odds.


Friday, June 11
Italy 3, Turkey 0 (Group A)

Saturday, June 12
Belgium 3, Russia 0 (Group B)
Finland 1, Denmark 0 (Group B)
Wales 1, Switzerland 1 (Group A)

Sunday, June 13
Austria 3, North Macedonia 1 (Group C)
England 1, Croatia 0 (Group D)

Netherlands 3, Ukraine 2 (Group C)

Monday, June 14
Czech Republic 2, Scotland 0 (Group D)
Slovakia 2, Poland 1 (Group E)
Spain 0, Sweden 0 (Group E)

Tuesday, June 15
France 1, Germany 0 (Group F)
Portugal 3, Hungary 0 (Group F)

Wednesday, June 16
Italy 3, Switzerland 0 (Group A)
Russia 1, Finland 0 (Group B)
Wales 2, Turkey 0 (Group A)

Thursday, June 17
Belgium 2, Denmark 1 (Group B)
The Netherlands 2, Austria 0 (Group C)
Ukraine 2, North Macedonia 1 (Group C)

Friday, June 18
England 0, Scotland 0 (Group D)
Croatia 1, Czech Republic 1 (Group D)
Sweden 1, Slovakia 0 (Group E)

Saturday, June 19
France 1, Hungary 1 (Group F)
Germany 4, Portugal 2 (Group F)
Spain 1, Poland 1 (Group E)

Sunday, June 20
Italy 1, Wales 0 (Group A)
Switzerland 3, Turkey 1 (Group A)

Monday, June 21
Austria 1, Ukraine 0(Group C)
Belgium 2, Finland 0 (Group B)
Denmark 4, Russia 1(Group B)
The Netherlands 3, North Macedonia 0 (Group C)

Tuesday, June 22
Croatia 3, Scotland 1 (Group D)
England 1, Czech Republic 0 (Group D)

Wednesday, June 23:
Spain 5, Slovakia 0
Sweden 3, Poland 2
Portugal 2, France 2
Germany 2, Hungary 2


Saturday, June 26

Denmark 4, Wales 0
Italy 2, Austria 1

Sunday, June 27

Czech Republic 2, Netherlands 0
Belgium 1, Portugal 0

Monday, June 28

Spain 5, Croatia 3
Switzerland 3, France 3 (5-4)

Tuesday, June 29

England 2, Germany 0
Ukraine 2, Sweden 1

Friday, July 2

Switzerland 1, Spain 1 (1-3)
Belgium 1, Italy 2

Saturday, July 3

Czech Republic 1, Denmark 2
Ukraine 0, England 4