Group F picks & predictions

The second match of the Euro 2020 Semifinals takes place on Wednesday, July 7th, and BetRivers.com is here to provide you with a betting preview complete with picks and predictions for Denmark vs. England.

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Denmark is the surprise team in this year’s semifinals. They were not a favorite entering the event, they lost their first two matches of the tournament and, at the end of the first half of their first match against Finland, star midfielder Christian Eriksen collapsed on the pitch and had to be brought back to life with a defibrillator. It’s incredible that they’ve made it this far. Cinderella wore her dancing skos.

England, on the other hand, entered as one of the favorites in the event. They struggled through their first couple of matches, but after beating Ukraine 4-0 in the quarterfinals, it looks as if they maybe the best team left in the field. They are, as things currently stand, the favorite to bring the title back to Britain.

So where does the value lie? Is football coming home?

Longtime writer Rob Dauster, the co-founder of The Field of 68 Podcast Network is here to provide his Euro 2020 quarterfinal picks & predictions the first two matches of the quarterfinals.

EURO 2020 CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: England (+145), Italy (+210), Spain (+255), Denmark (+950)

EURO 2020 PICKS, PREDICTIONS AND BETTING PREVIEW: England vs. Denmark

England vs. Denmark, 3 p.m. ET

  • ENGLAND: -137
  • DENMARK: +430
  • DRAW: +265
  • Over 2.5: +138
  • Under 2.5: -167

Denmark is the feel-good story of this tournament.

The event started disastrously, and almost tragically, when Cristian Eriksen collapsed on the pitch and had to be resuscitated on live television. It was awful, and it was part of the reason that the Danes lost their first two matches in group play. But they rallied, and have now reeled off three straight wins to put themselves 180 minutes away from a major international trophy.

All that stands between them and a spot in the title game is England, who may be the best team in the field.

Now, Denmark has been one of the most impressive teams in this event based on underlying numbers. They’ve pressed exceptionally well, and their midfield, despite missing Eriksen, has looked terrific. Pierre Emille-Hojbjerg has looked like one of the best midfielders in the world, and while it took a little while for them to find a rhythm, Denmark’s attackers are playing as well as they have all tournament right now.

My concern, however, is that this is an English side that has been the best defensive side in the event. They have not yet allowed a goal. In five matches, they have allowed just 3.3 xG. To put that into context, Spain has bettered that number in each of their last three games. England have had complete control over every match they’ve played in, and it all stems from their defense. It’s not a secret that boring, defensive football is the best way to win international tournaments, and England — who have the most attacking talent of any team in the field — are the best at thriving at boring, defensive football.

Put another way, I just cannot see Denmark scoring here. I do think that the Danes press well enough that we won’t see another performance from England like we did against Ukraine, but I think this is another dominant 1-0 or 2-0 win for the English.

With that said, England’s ML is (-137). Under 2.5 goals is (-167). If parlay both of those bets, it’s paying off at (+230). Along those same lines, betting England to win with a clean sheet is priced at (+125). I like all of those values.

Click here for the full list of Spain-Italy odds.

EURO 2020 SCHEDULE

Friday, June 11
Italy 3, Turkey 0 (Group A)

Saturday, June 12
Belgium 3, Russia 0 (Group B)
Finland 1, Denmark 0 (Group B)
Wales 1, Switzerland 1 (Group A)

Sunday, June 13
Austria 3, North Macedonia 1 (Group C)
England 1, Croatia 0 (Group D)
Netherlands 3, Ukraine 2 (Group C)

Monday, June 14
Czech Republic 2, Scotland 0 (Group D)
Slovakia 2, Poland 1 (Group E)
Spain 0, Sweden 0 (Group E)

Tuesday, June 15
France 1, Germany 0 (Group F)
Portugal 3, Hungary 0 (Group F)

Wednesday, June 16
Italy 3, Switzerland 0 (Group A)
Russia 1, Finland 0 (Group B)
Wales 2, Turkey 0 (Group A)

Thursday, June 17
Belgium 2, Denmark 1 (Group B)
The Netherlands 2, Austria 0 (Group C)
Ukraine 2, North Macedonia 1 (Group C)

Friday, June 18
England 0, Scotland 0 (Group D)
Croatia 1, Czech Republic 1 (Group D)
Sweden 1, Slovakia 0 (Group E)

Saturday, June 19
France 1, Hungary 1 (Group F)
Germany 4, Portugal 2 (Group F)
Spain 1, Poland 1 (Group E)

Sunday, June 20
Italy 1, Wales 0 (Group A)
Switzerland 3, Turkey 1 (Group A)

Monday, June 21
Austria 1, Ukraine 0(Group C)
Belgium 2, Finland 0 (Group B)
Denmark 4, Russia 1(Group B)
The Netherlands 3, North Macedonia 0 (Group C)

Tuesday, June 22
Croatia 3, Scotland 1 (Group D)
England 1, Czech Republic 0 (Group D)

Wednesday, June 23:
Spain 5, Slovakia 0
Sweden 3, Poland 2
Portugal 2, France 2
Germany 2, Hungary 2

ROUND OF 16

Saturday, June 26

Denmark 4, Wales 0
Italy 2, Austria 1

Sunday, June 27

Czech Republic 2, Netherlands 0
Belgium 1, Portugal 0

Monday, June 28

Spain 5, Croatia 3
Switzerland 3, France 3 (5-4)

Tuesday, June 29

England 2, Germany 0
Ukraine 2, Sweden 1

Friday, July 2

Switzerland 1, Spain 1 (1-3)
Belgium 1, Italy 2

Saturday, July 3

Czech Republic 1, Denmark 2
Ukraine 0, England 4