Group F picks & predictions

The final matches of Euro 2020 Group F take place on Wednesday, June 23 and BetRivers.com is here to break down the Group F picks and predictions for France-Portugal and Germany-Hungary at 3 p.m ET on Wednesday. Get informed and place your bet online at BetRivers Sportsbook.

Things get really interesting in Group F, as the Group of Death may be on the verge of sending just two teams to the knockout stages. France, who sits atop the group despite drawing Hungary, will win the group if they can beat Portugal, who are through so long as they get a result or only lose to France by fewer than three goals. Germany can win the group if France drops points and they win, while Hungary needs to pull off a massive upset of the Germans to move on to the next round.

Longtime writer Rob Dauster, the co-founder of The Field of 68 Podcast Network is here to provide his Group F picks & predictions for the final matches of group play on Wednesday, June 23.

GROUP E STANDINGS:
1. France (1-0-1, 4pts). 2 GF, 1 GA
2. Germany (1-1-0, 3pts). 4 GF, 3 GA
3. Portugal (1-1-0, 3pts). 5 GF, 4 GA
4. Hungary (0-1-1, 1pt). 1 GF, 4 GA

EURO 2020 CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: France (+400), Italy (+600), Germany (+700), Belgium (+700), Spain (+900), England (+950), Portugal (+1100), Netherlands (+1150), Denmark (+1800), Croatia (+3500), Sweden (+5000), Wales (+8000), Austria (+12000)

GROUP F PICKS & PREDICTIONS: FRANCE vs. PORTUGAL

FRANCE (1-0-1, 4pts) vs. PORTUGAL (1-1-0, 3pts), 3 p.m. ET
PORTUGAL: +275
FRANCE: +117
DRAW: +220
Over 2.5: +130
Under 2.5: -157
Click here for the full list of France-Portugal odds.

What on paper looks like it should be the most exciting match of the day will, in all likelihood, be an absolute dud.

France is already through. A win would win them the group, but I’m not sure how concerned they are going to be with winning the group. They’re already through. At the same time, Portugal is through as long as they don’t lose by three goals. Both teams are already conditioned to set up defensively, and there are reports that France will be playing an even more defensive-minded side than usual.

What that means is that I fully expect Portugal to sit back, soak up pressure and dare the centerbacks operating as fullbacks for the French to try and create what Germany’s talented wingbacks were able to create. That’s not going to happen, so I think all the value is on lines where there isn’t much scoring. Right now, under 2.25 is at (-118), although I don’t love the price. I also think that betting No on “both teams to score” prop at (-120) has some value as well. If our bet only hits in full at 1-0 for either side, then we’re banking on one team getting shut out already.

GROUP F PICKS & PREDICTIONS: GERMANY vs. HUNGARY

GERMANY (1-0-1, 3pts) vs. HUNGARY (0-1-1, 1pt)
GERMANY: -560
HUNGARY: +1600
DRAW: +650
Over 3.5: +106
Under 3.5: -127
Click here for the full list of Germany-Hungary odds.

The Germans did not look good in their first match against the French. They lost 1-0 but France had a penalty waved off and two goals ruled out by VAR. That all changed against Portugal on Saturday, when Germany’s wingers were able to find some space and they put up four goals in a 4-2 win that gave them a very real chance of winning the group.

Hungary, on the other hand, has created just 0.84 xG in two matches, spending the first two matches pinned in their own half, trying to soak up as much pressure as their defense will allow. That should play into the German hands, and while not having Thomas Mueller will hurt, I do think that Germany is rightfully the heavy, heavy favorite.

But that, too, creates some issues here. Hungary held France to one goal and Portugal scoreless for the first 86 minutes. That 5-3-2 they play can be tough to break down, and Germany is not great at breaking down set defenses. So with the under currently sitting at 3.5 and (-127), I do think that’s where the value currently lies. When they have the win, I can see the Germans throwing on the breaks and conserving some energy for the knockout rounds.

That said, I also do see some value on the first-half line. Germany (-1) is currently sitting at (+107), and that is worth taking a look at as well.

EURO 2020 SCHEDULE

Friday, June 11
Italy 3, Turkey 0 (Group A)

Saturday, June 12
Belgium 3, Russia 0 (Group B)
Finland 1, Denmark 0 (Group B)
Wales 1, Switzerland 1 (Group A)

Sunday, June 13
Austria 3, North Macedonia 1 (Group C)
England 1, Croatia 0 (Group D)
Netherlands 3, Ukraine 2 (Group C)

Monday, June 14
Czech Republic 2, Scotland 0 (Group D)
Slovakia 2, Poland 1 (Group E)
Spain 0, Sweden 0 (Group E)

Tuesday, June 15
France 1, Germany 0 (Group F)
Portugal 3, Hungary 0 (Group F)

Wednesday, June 16
Italy 3, Switzerland 0 (Group A)
Russia 1, Finland 0 (Group B)
Wales 2, Turkey 0 (Group A)

Thursday, June 17
Belgium 2, Denmark 1 (Group B)
The Netherlands 2, Austria 0 (Group C)
Ukraine 2, North Macedonia 1 (Group C)

Friday, June 18
England 0, Scotland 0 (Group D)
Croatia 1, Czech Republic 1 (Group D)
Sweden 1, Slovakia 0 (Group E)

Saturday, June 19
France 1, Hungary 1 (Group F)
Germany 4, Portugal 2 (Group F)
Spain 1, Poland 1 (Group E)

Sunday, June 20
Italy 1, Wales 0 (Group A)
Switzerland 3, Turkey 1 (Group A)

Monday, June 21
Austria 1, Ukraine 0(Group C)
Belgium 2, Finland 0 (Group B)
Denmark 4, Russia 1(Group B)
The Netherlands 3, North Macedonia 0 (Group C)

Tuesday, June 22
Croatia 3, Scotland 1 (Group D)
England 1, Czech Republic 0 (Group D)

Wednesday, June 23:
12:00 p.m. ET: Slovakia vs. Spain (Group E)
12:00 p.m. ET: Sweden vs. Poland (Group E)
3:00 p.m. ET: Germany vs. Hungary (Group F)
3:00 p.m. ET: Portugal vs. France (Group F)