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Rob Dauster, a longtime national college basketball writer, and co-founder of the Field of 68 Podcast Network breaks down the March 4 CBB lines for Thursday and the bets he likes the best.
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March 4 CBB Lines: Boosted Bets
- #3 Baylor, #5 Iowa & #24 Colorado all cover -11.5. Was +450. Now +525
- #15 Texas +1.5 & 15+ combined 3-pointers vs. Oklahoma. Was +245. Now +275
RELATED: How to bet on or against Gonzaga
COLLEGE BASKETBALL ODDS: MARCH 4 CBB LINES
MICHIGAN STATE (14-10, 8-10) at #2 MICHIGAN (18-2, 13-2), 7 p.m. ET
MONEYLINE: Michigan -835, Michigan State +575
SPREAD: Michigan -12
OVER/UNDER: 140 points
Click here for the full list of Michigan-MSU odds.
This is just a fascinating matchup coming off of what we saw on Tuesday night.
For starters, Illinois exposed the flaws in Michigan’s roster. What the Illini did was play drop coverage against Michigan’s ball-screens while staying tight to the shooters on the perimeter. Since Mike Smith is not a great creator off the bounce and hunter Dickinson is not a guy that can space the floor, it limited what the Wolverines were able to do in their most effective sets. Combine that with the fact that Kofi Cockburn was able to go one-on-one with Hunter Dickinson in the post, and the result was an absolute smackdown by the Illini.
Michigan State, on the other hand, got themselves a nice little tuneup matchup for Michigan in Indiana, who has a bunch of decent wings on the perimeter surrounding a low-post behemoth in Trayce Jackson-Davis that is not really built for playing out on the perimeter. They won that game by six points.
And so now the two rivals face off.
I’m honestly not sure if Michigan State has the bigs to be able to deal with Dickinson. Marcus Bingham has been better of late, but he is still a slender center that is dealing with one of the strongest guys in the Big Ten. That’s a tough matchup. But if Bingham can hold his own, I think the Spartans — now that they are playing q smaller, more modern lineup, can matchup with Michigan’s wings. And I think that Aaron Henry has the ability to carry the Spartans, at least in stretches.
That said, the thing that I am worried about here is that it is a little bit of strength on strength, and Michigan’s just better than Michigan State. But given everything that I just said, the fact that this is a rivalry game and that the Wolverines are only going to have had a day of prep for this one, 12 points just seems like too many points.
So I’ll be on Sparty, even if it feels uncomfortable.
#17 OKLAHOMA STATE (17-6 10-6) at #3 BAYLOR (19-1, 11-1), 7 p.m. ET
MONEYLINE: Baylor -835, Oklahoma State +575
SPREAD: Baylor -12
OVER/UNDER: 148.5 points
Click here for the full list of Baylor-Oklahoma State odds.
The first time that these two teams played, Oklahoma State was without Cade Cunningham and Rondel White, their best offensive weapon and their best defender, respectively. They were still able to keep things competitive with the Bears for the better part of 30 minutes before Baylor went into takeover mode and ran away with it down the stretch.
Now, the circumstances here are very different. Baylor is coming off of a pause, they are not back to 100%, they are playing their third game in six days and are just 48 hours removed from an overtime thriller at West Virginia. Their no-middle defense has left some gaps in recent games, and that is not something that you want to do against a Cowboys team that has slashers. I’m not sure if it can get fixed in 48 hours between games, either.
It’s not going to feel great, but I’m going to be fading two of the three best teams in America tonight.