March 13 CBB Lines

The Tuesday, January 19 CBB lines are live on, and as has been the case all season long, Tuesdays tend to provide the strongest slate of college basketball games.

Rob Dauster, a longtime national college basketball writer, and co-founder of the Field of 68 Podcast Network breaks down the January 19 CBB lines, with analysis on a tricky SEC matchup between Alabama and LSU, and a Big East tilt between Seton Hall ad Villanova.

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#19 ALABAMA (11-3, 6-0) at LSU (10-2, 5-1), 9:00 p.m.
MONEYLINE: LSU -114, Alabama -105
OVER/UNDER: 165 points
Click here for the full list of LSU-Alabama odds.

I do not understand why Alabama is getting a point tonight.

It does not make any sense to me.

LSU has talent, don’t get me wrong. Cam Thomas is going to end up being a lottery pick. Trendon Watford, at 6-foot-9, handles some of the point guards duties for the Tigers, making them a difficult matchup for most teams. Javonte Smart has been in school longer than anyone expected when he committed to the program. In general, I like this group. It’s not surprising that they are sitting at 5-1 in the SEC right now. They’re good.

But that record is also inflated because they have not beaten anyone. Their best win on the season in the Arkansas team that Alabama beat by 31 on Saturday. They were taken to overtime by Georgia. They lost to Florida and Saint Louis, the only top 40 teams on their schedule. And the Tigers rank 190th in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.

That is hardly an ideal matchup when squaring off with the Tide, who have wins over Kentucky, Arkansas, Florida and, most impressively, at Tennessee to their name in this most recent seven-game run. They are the best defensive team in SEC play — better than Tennessee, who has ranked as one of the best defensive teams in the country all season long — and with this threes-or-layups Morey-ball style that Nate Oats has implemented, they’ve been just as ruthless on the offensive end as LSU.

The truth is that betting on Alabama can be a little uncomfortable because they rely so heavily on the three-ball. An off-shooting night is deadly. But in SEC play, they’re shooting better than 39 percent from three while attempting 44 percent of their shots from beyond the arc. John Petty feels like he hasn’t missed in months. Jaden Shackelford and Josh Primo have both taken a step forward. And Herb Jones’ availability means that one of the best defenders in the country will be on Watford and Thomas.

I love the Tide in this spot.

SETON HALL (9-5 6-2) at #3 VILLANOVA (8-1, 3-0), 9:00 p.m.
MONEYLINE: Villanova -455, Seton Hall +350
SPREAD: Villanova -9
OVER/UNDER: 139.5 points
Click here for the full list of Villanova-Seton Hall odds.

This is a pretty easy and obvious spot to fade Villanova. The Wildcats have spent much of the last month in quarantine. They were stuck in hotel rooms for a week, go out in the first week of January, had one practice and then immediately had to go back into a pause for another week and a half. They haven’t played a game since Dec. 23rd. They weren’t able to return to practice until Thursday, and that was only the A) players that were already healthy, and B) the guys that hadn’t tested positive.

There is no way they’re going to be anywhere close to in shape.

And while Seton Hall is 9-5 on the season, they are 6-2 in Big East play. Sandro Mamukelashvili is having a Big East Player of the Year kind of season. They can match up with Villanova’s spread-out offense. This is too many points, and almost regardless of what happens in the first half, I’ll be on the second-half line as well.