The weekend is here, and the college basketball schedule continues to adjust on the fly, making for some interesting December 11 CBB lines on BetRivers.com.
Rob Dauster, a longtime national college basketball writer, and co-founder of the Field of 68 Podcast Network, analyzes the December 10 CBB lines, with a focus on the ranked showdown between No. 24 San Diego State and No. 23 Arizona State.
COLLEGE BASKETBALL ODDS: FRIDAY, DECEMBER 11 CBB LINES
IOWA STATE (1-1) at #3 IOWA (4-0), 9 p.m. ET
MONEYLINE: Iowa -1115, Iowa State +700
SPREAD: Iowa -13.5
OVER/UNDER: 158.5 points
Click here for the full list of Iowa-Iowa State odds.
On the surface, it looks like the value here is on Iowa State.
According to KenPom and some of the other projection sites, the Cyclones should be around 11-point underdogs. They’re getting 14 points. There is some value in that line.
That said, it’s not a bet that I think that I want to make. Iowa has the ability to score a lot of points in a hurry, especially when Preseason National Player of the Year Luka Garza will be going up against a team that basically has one big man in the rotation. We saw against North Carolina what happens when defenses throw bodies at Luka and leave Iowa’s shooters open.
Put another way, I don’t see how ISU can get stops at Iowa.
That said, I’m not sure that Iowa can stop Iowa State, either. The way to be Iowa is with guards that can play off the bounce and in ball-screens, and the Cyclones have Tyler Harris, Rasir Bolton and Jalen Coleman-Lands. Those guys can play off the bounce and in ball-screens.
So if both teams match up well offensively, and if both teams rank in the top 40 in average possession length (meaning they play fast), that screams BET THE OVER.
MARQUETTE (4-1) at UCLA (4-1), 9:30 p.m. ET
MONEYLINE: UCLA -200, Marquette +165
SPREAD: UCLA -4.5
Click here for the full list of UCLA-Marquette odds.
Johnny Juzang is back. He played 19 minutes against San Diego in the middle of the week. Jalen Hill is back, too. He’s averaging about 20 minutes, 9.7 points, and 8.0 boards through three games. That means that the two starters that the Bruins were missing earlier this season, in the loss at San Diego State and the triple-overtime win against Pepperdine, are back.
That matters. Because I think that UCLA is now undervalued by the market. The Bruins lost at San Diego State, who just pummeled Arizona State in Tempe last night. Pepperdine has two guys that could end up being NBA players one day in Colbey Ross and Kessler Edwards. So those performances don’t look nearly as bad as they did at the time, especially now that UCLA has Juzang and Hill back.
The one concern I do have about the matchup with Marquete is that UCLA allows teams to shoot a lot of threes and Marquette is shooting nearly 38 percent from three this season. But if two games against high-major foes, the Golden Eagles are 13-43 from deep, and the Bruins tend to be good at defending the three-point line; those are the shots that they want.
So I’ll be on UCLA in this spot.
MILWAUKEE (0-0) at KANSAS STATE (1-4), 8 p.m. ET
MONEYLINE: K-State -590, Milwaukee +430
SPREAD: K-State -10
Click here for the full list of Kansas State-Milwaukee odds.
This is, in theory, a good buy-low spot for the Wildcats. They are coming off of a loss to a Division II opponent and going up against a Milwaukee team that has not played a game yet this season and just came out of quarantine on Monday.
That said, Kansas State stinks. They are not good. Even if the process said bet on the Wildcats, I don’t want to bet on the Wildcats, especially when the spread is now double-digits in a game that is projected to be in the 60s.
Milwaukee is also not very good, but what they do well is force turnovers and make teams beat them in isolation; they were second nationally in the percentage of possessions that ended with an opponent in isolation last season. Kansas State doesn’t have isolation scorers.
I just see this being an ugly rock fight. If you need to be on a side, take the Wildcats. But the under seems like the better bet.