Bills-Patriots Week 16 Odds

The final Monday Night Football game of the 2020 NFL betting season is here, and is proud to offer a full list of Bills-Patriots Week 16 odds, props and teasers.

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Although the Bills (-7, -345 ML) have already wrapped up the AFC East championship, bettors expect Buffalo to pour it on the Patriots (+285 ML), a team that will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2008. The public is backing Buffalo with 92% of the ML handle and 88% of the spread handle. The public is also on Over 46.5 with 69% of the O/U handle. The Bills have covered in six straight while the Patriots are 2-3 ATS in their last five. New England has failed to hit the over in six straight while Buffalo has hit the over in three of its last five.

David Tuchman is here to break down the Bills-Patriots Week 16 odds and tells you which way you should lean.

Rough week for me as we went 3-6. The Irv Smith touchdown prop kept us from losing too much and we’re hoping to close out with a bang. Bad weeks are bound to happen, but at 61-38-4 on the season, we can’t really complain. 

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Bills-Patriots Week 16 Odds

  • Week 16: Bills (11-3) at Patriots (6-8), 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Moneyline: Bills -345, Patriots +285
  • Spread: Bills -7
  • Over/Under: 47 points

Click here for a full list of Bills-Patriots Week 16 odds.

The Buffalo Bills play the New England Patriots in what is essentially a meaningless week 16 game. This statement would probably be true in any of the past fifteen years, but for a change,  they’re celebrating in upstate New York! In fairness, Buffalo is still playing for the No. 2 seed and a chance to avoid playing in Kansas City until the AFC championship game. I expect Buffalo would love to rest some starters next week (if possible) so a big statement win to close out the season is on the menu. 

Unfortunately, the line has moved all the way to 7/7.5 which makes me a bit uncomfortable. On a neutral field, my charts have this at about 6 points so based on that, there appears to be some value on New England, but my gut tells me “NO” 

Tonight, we’re going to get a bit weird. 

This year has been a coming-out party for Josh Allen and the Bills. Buffalo would love to put a stamp on it by sweeping their arch-nemesis.  I genuinely think that Buffalo wins this game, but I just don’t see the value. 

What we’re going to do is TEASE them…. Take Buffalo and tease it from 7 to 1. Pair that with a Week 17 Cowboys-Giants matchup. The line is currently Dallas -2.5 which represents recency bias after Week 16. The G-men will keep this one close and possibly win.

Tease Buffalo -7 to -1 AND NY Giants +2.5 to +8.5

As for stand-alone bets in tonight’s game, we’ve got a few for you to chew on. 

Cole Beasley wasn’t particularly productive the last time Buffalo faced the Patriots (2 catches, 2 targets), but since that game, the little engine that could has double-digit targets in four out of six games including 31 targets in his last three games. 

John Brown has been designated for return from IR, but he’s not playing tonight, which means another heavy target night for Mr. Beasely. We’re putting our eggs in one basket and betting on:

Cole Beasley OVER 4.5 receptions
Cole Beasley OVER 50.5 receiving yards

Buffalo should score in this game and frankly the only reason, we’re not also betting the OVER 47 (leaning that way) is because I have no faith in the Patriots passing game. Because of the game script, I do think we see a heavy dose of James White in this matchup. 

I’m not sure if he’ll be overly productive, but I forecast 3 receptions so we’re betting OVER 2.5 receptions. 

Again, because of the game script, I expect Jakobi Meyers to be heavily targeted. His current reception line of 3.5 is a bit low. 

We’re betting on OVER 3.5 receptions for Jakobi Meyers.


  • Teaser: Buffalo and NY Giants
  • Cole Beasley OVER 4.5 receptions
  • Cole Beasley OVER 50.5 yards
  • James White OVER 2.5 receptions
  • Jakobi Meyers OVER 3.5 receptions