Alabama-Ole Miss Prediction

Why do you need an Alabama-Ole Miss betting prediction when the narratives and storylines going head to head in this matchup on Saturday afternoon are as juicy as anything?

We have former Alabama offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin heading back into Bryant-Denny Stadium with the best team that he has had at Ole Miss to date. Why is it the best team that he has had to date? Because quarterback Matt Corral has been somewhere between a God and a mere immortal through three games this season. After leading the Rebels to a win over Louisville in the opener, he threw for five tuddies against Austin Peay before putting up seven total touchdowns — three through the air, four on the ground — in a runaway win over Tulane last Saturday.

And he … might actually be the second-best quarterback in this game?

Bryce Young is a monster. Yes, he is the man at the helm of one of the best programs in the country. But there haven’t been any Alabama quarterbacks that have put up numbers like he’s put up this season. He has 15 touchdowns and just a single interception this season, and that interception came when his received juggled what should have been another touchdown.

These are your two Heisman favorites.

Is there enough at Ole Miss to turn this into a competitive game?

Longtime college sports writer Rob Dauster, the co-founder of The Field of 68 and The Field of 12 Network is here to break down the tantalizing matchup and provide his Alabama-Ole Miss prediction for Week 5 of the college football season.

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#12 OLE MISS (3-0) vs. #1 ALABAMA (4-0)
GAME: 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
MONEYLINE: Alabama (-670), Ole Miss (+450)
SPREAD: Alabama (-15)

Alabama ML: 93% money, 84% bets
Alabama Spread: 60% money, 43% bets
Over: 75% handle, 54% bets

The answer, unfortunately, is no.

The issue isn’t on the offensive side of the ball for Ole Miss. Lane Kiffin is exceptionally good as a football coach. The Rebels are going to be able to move the ball on Alabama’s defense. They are going to be able to score points. A lot of that has to do with the fact that Ole Miss has played just an OK schedule, but they are leading the country in points and yards for a reason.

That total, however, is utterly enormous, and while I do tend to think that the over is the better play here — life is too short to bet the under, and this final was 63-48 last season — my favorite bet regarding an over is over 17.5 points in the first quarter, which pays out at (-108). Ole Miss has averaged 14 first quarter points through three games. Alabama has averaged 16.5 points through four games. Both teams have big play ability and quarterbacks capable of leading quick scoring drives.

And while I am typically loathe to bet against Nick Saban and Alabama, I do think that there is value on Ole Miss getting two touchdowns. We saw Florida have some success moving the ball on the ground against the Tide, and Ole Miss has the horses in their back field to attack that front seven as well.

We’re getting more than two touchdowns. I’ll take both of them and ride with the Rebels.