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The 2021 NFL Draft odds have shifted dramatically in the week leading up to draft day. With a draft class frontloaded with quarterbacks, the early part of the first round is shaping up to be the most eventful in quite some time.
Troy Machir breaks down how the public is wagering on the 2021 NFL Draft odds ahead of the first round on Thursday night, which begins at 8:00 p.m ET.
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Before you get to the preview, here is Doug Gottlieb’s take on which teams will use their first-round pick to select a quarterback.
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2021 NFL DRAFT ODDS: BETTING PREVIEW
All signs point to the Jaguars selecting Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence (-10000 1st Pick) with the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, followed by the New York Jets selecting BYU QB Zach Wilson (-5000 2nd Pick) at No. 2 overall. But Which player will be selected No. 3 overall by the 49ers has been the most popular NFL Draft prop bet by total volume, and the third most wagered-on NFL Draft prop bet by betting handle.
In the past week, Alabama QB Mac Jones has moved from +200 to -305 to land at No. 3, making him the odds-on favorite. North Dakota State QB Trey Lance, who like Jones has been heavily linked to the 49ers in the past week, went from +450 to +225 for the second-shortest odds. Ohio State QB Justin Fields, who was the favorite at -150 a week ago, is now +700 to be drafted by San Francisco. Fields is currently backed by 39% of the bet handle and 35% of the bet volume, Jones is backed by 28% of the bet handle and 22% of the bet volume, and Trey Lance is backed by 26% of the bet handle and 28% of the bet volume.
The second most popular NFL Draft prop and the second-most wagered-on NFL Draft prop is the exact outcome of picks No. 3, No. 4, and No. 5. The most popular pick is currently 3. Mac Jones, 4. Kyle Pitts, 5. Ja’Marr Chase (+375), backed by 19% of the total bets. The second most popular trio by total bets is 3. Justin Fields, 4. Kyle Pitts, 5. Penei Sewell (+1000), followed by 3. Justin Fields, 4. Kyle Pitts, 5. Ja’Marr Chase (+700).
Rounding out the top three most popular and most wagered on NFL Draft props is First Non-QB Drafted, with dynamic Florida TE Kyle Pitts (-150) leading the way. Pitts is currently backed by 80% of the total bet handle and 54% of the total bet volume. Oregon OL Penei Sewell (+500), widely regarded as the best lineman in the draft, is responsible for 14% of the bet handle and 25% of the bet volume. Ja’Marr Chase (+250), who is in the running as the top WR in the draft, is backed by 4% of the bet handle and 14% of bet volume.
2021 NFL DRAFT ODDS: MOST WAGERED-ON PROSPECTS
It should come as little surprise that the three NFL Draft prospects with the most pre-draft buzz are also the three players with the most total player prop bets and most total player prop handle. Justin Fields, arguably the most polarizing player in the draft class, is backed by 17% of total player prop handle and 13.3% of total player prop bets, followed by Kyle Pitts, the best pure athlete in the draft with 11.7% of total player prop handle and 10.7% of total player prop bets, and Alabama star Mac Jones with 9.5% of total player prop handle and 8.5% of total player prop bets.
2021 NFL DRAFT ODDS: FUN PROP BETS
- A QB to be selected with each of the first 5 picks: Yes (+1200)
- Position of Mr. Irrelevant: Offense (-110), Defense (+100), Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper (+1100)
- Round of first Special Teams player drafted: Rd1 (+10000), Rd2 (+1600), Rd3 (+800), Rd4 (+300), Rd5 (+125)
- Total SEC players drafted in first round: Over 12.5 (+150), Under 12.5 (-190)
- Total Big Ten players drafted in first round: Over 6.5 (+100), Under 6.5 (-125)
- Total Alabama players drafted in first round: Over 5.5 (-250), Under 5.5 (+190)
- Total ACC players drafted in first round: Over 5.5 (+106), Under 5.5 (-134)
- Total Big 12 players drafted in first round: Over 2.5 (+200), Under 2.5 (-265)
- Total PAC-12 players drafted in first round: Over 2.5 (+265), Under 2.5 (-360)
2021 NFL DRAFT ODDS: NOTABLE FIRST-ROUND OVER/UNDERS
- WR: Over 4.5 (-332): 98% handle, 89% bets
- QB: Over 5.5 (+390): 65% handle, 85% bets
- OL: Over 6.5 (-111): 63% handle, 62% bets
- RB: Over 1.5 (+140): 53% handle, 59% bets
2021 NFL DRAFT ODDS: NOTABLE BIG BETS
- $28,000: Over 4.5 WRs drafted in First Round (-303). Potential payout: $37,240
- $15,000: Justin Fields drafted No. 3 Overall (-125). Potential payout: $27,000
- $13,000: Ja’Marr Chase drafted in Top 5 (-125). Potential payout: $23,400
- $10,000: Over 5.5 Alabama players drafted in First Round (-200). Potential payout: $15,000